WEST AFRICA REVIEW ISSN: 1525-4488

T.A. Akinyele

Introduction

I have come to believe that showing interest in the electoral process of one's country is not only one's civic responsibility but one of the best sources of getting better educated about the country from the point of view of history, demography, socio-economic and political dimensions of the country’s development.[1] I watched with more than keen interest the preparations for and the conduct of the most recent elections in Nigeria meant to reaffirm Nigeria's commitment to the democratic process which started in May 1999 after fifteen years of military misrule. The elections consisted of National Assembly (i.e. House of Representatives and Senate) elections of Saturday, 12th April, and gubernatorial and presidential elections of 19th April, and the state assembly elections of 3rd May, 2003.

Nigeria’s Profile

Nigeria deserves special attention because it has features, attributes and a robust resource profile that should attract the interest of not only its citizens but also citizens of other countries of the world's global village. Nigeria accommodates the most vibrant, intelligent and resourceful concentration of black people the world over, being the largest in population in Africa and the tenth most populated country in the world. Out of every five black persons walking the surface of the earth, one is a Nigerian. The country has been operating under a variant of the American-type presidential system since 1979 after years of spasmodic attempts at coping with democratic rule punctuated by unnecessary military interventions since 1966 that lasted for over 30 years of its 40 years of independence before the present dispensation. The result is that over sixty per cent of its population, the most vibrant and politically relevant portion, has known nothing but military rule. Hence the incidence of what has come to be known as "the militarization of the national psyche" in Nigeria.

Nigeria's natural resources which are huge had been squandered during years of corrupt leadership by the country's elite. With exportable agricultural produce like cocoa, timber and rubber, an estimated 32 billion barrels of crude petroleum reserve that makes the country the largest producer of the product in Africa and the sixth in the world, the second largest untapped reserve of bitumen in the world and several other solid mineral resources, Nigeria has no business being in the miserable league of pauper-nations; yet it is classified as one of the poorest ten countries in the world.

Democratic Evolution in Nigeria

Nigeria became politically independent on 1st October, 1960 after some twenty years of vibrant and intensive nationalistic clamor by leaders like Herbert Macaulay, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Obafemi Awolowo, Ahmadu Bello, S. L. Akintola, Anthony Enahoro, and others. The post-independence government was a parliamentary type. While the politicians were fanning the embers of disunity because the regions were stronger and collectively better managed than the federal government, the newly-recruited young graduates in the army were waiting at the wings wanting to seize the opportunity of any loopholes to cause a coup d'état. That opportunity came courtesy of the snowballing effects of the Action Group's intra-party crisis of 1962-63. That crisis which embroiled the most progressive of the then regional governments was followed by the botched 1964 federal elections and subsequent labor unrest and political turmoil. On 15th January,1966, the military struck, an event that signalled the demise of Nigeria’s first experiment in democratic governance.

The political and socio-economic environment since 1999 and particularly in the last two years before the 2003 elections did not present any optimism about a trouble-free atmosphere for the elections. There were several cases of boundary and inter-communal clashes, ethnic political uprisings, Sharia-induced unrests, and economic sabotage throughout the period, the emergence of ethno-based organizations like the Arewa Consultative Forum [ACF], Afenifere, Ohaneze, Ijaw Union, and the like, and their paramilitary offshoots became pronounced. The unending arguments and counter-arguments over revenue allocation, resource control, onshore/offshore dichotomy and the need for a national conference to discuss the future union of Nigerian nationalities, continued unabated. At the same time, bickering between the legislature and the executive arising from attempts to establish constitutional checks and balances led to unnecessary delays in the annual budget approval and implementation process. All these developments encouraged many pessimists to suggest a postponement of the elections. But the government of President Olusegun Obasanjo was determined that the elections must hold in order to ensure continuity of the democratic process and to break the so-called "jinx".

In preparing for the 2003 elections, I believe the Federal Government took cognizance of lessons learnt from the mistakes of the 1999 arrangements and as well took pains to harmonize the constitutional provisions and the enabling electoral law and regulations especially those regarding the establishment of democratic institutions such as Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and political parties. Nevertheless, some spanners were thrown into the works even though by constitutional means. Court cases were filed regarding various arrangements such as the number of political parties and conditions for their registration. It is to the credit of Obasanjo's government that no attempt was ever made to interfere with Court processes in these electoral matters. Issues were also raised regarding whether all the elections should be held on one day or spread over several days.

The amount of freedom of speech guaranteed during the pre-election period as well as the spirit of tolerance demonstrated by the government and the amount of transparency in the dissemination of information by INEC contributed to the general popular acceptance of the preparatory arrangements made for the elections. Those conversant with elections in developing countries have always affirmed that the ground for any possible rigging of elections usually start with the way the exercise for the registration of voters is handled. Because INEC adopted transparent and fool-proof computer-based methods, the exercise generally received popular acceptance. There was opposition in certain sections of the populace, especially in the northern part of the country, to the use of the new national identity cards for obtaining voter cards. Without doubt, acceding to the opposition’s request would have reduced the cost of the electoral preparations. But, as it turned out and to the credit of INEC, the figures of validly registered voters almost tallied with the total number of persons registered under the National Identity Card programme, i.e., 61 million. Any attempts by overzealous political agents to cause multiple registration were defeated by the efficient methods adopted by INEC such that several applications for registration were disqualified ranging from 2% in the least fraudulent area to as high as 34% of total number of applications processed in a few areas. An analysis of Table 1 which is the summary of registered voters would show that, generally speaking, the number of registered voters is nearly correspondent with the population of each state. It would also be seen that the incidence of disqualification of applications due to attempts at multiple registration occurred in all the states of the federation. There are a number of analytical deductions that can be obtained from Table 1. It will be seen from a conjunction of such deductions from both Table 1 and Table 2 that the number of registered voters as a percentage of total number of registered voters in the northern part of the country is 48.92% while those of the southern part amount to 51.08% of the total 60,823,022 registered voters. It will be interesting to find similar North-South distribution of the results of the National Identity Card Programme.

Table 1 – Summary of Registered Voters

Source: The Guardian, Sunday, April 6, 2003.

Table 2 - North-South Distribution of Registered Voters

It is also important to observe from Table 2 above that while the percentage of disqualified applications for registration of the country's total number of applications processed amounts to 10.41%, the percentage in respect of the North is 14.38% while that of the south is 6.25%. In other words, the inference is that more attempts were made in the northern part of the country to inflate the voters register through multiple registration than in the southern part.[4] Suffice it to say that it would appear that the effort made by INEC to eliminate or reduce the incidence of fraudulent registration eventually paid off in eliminating or reducing the incidence of rigging.

After a lot of arguments by some of the registered political parties regarding the system of balloting to be used, INEC adopted the Open-Secret balloting system which allows for some secrecy while thumb-printing the ballot paper but the dropping of the thumb-printed paper had to be done openly and seen by everybody as against the A4 system canvassed by some of the parties whereby voters would have been obliged to queue behind the pictures or photographs of candidates. Here again INEC's decision proved more reasonable in a situation where eventually thirty political parties became registered and, for instance, twenty candidates vied for the position of President. Any alternative method would have led to chaos and a possible breakdown of law and order.

Role of Key Political Actors

Democracy, understood as a widely accepted system of organizing the conduct of human affairs in a polity and ensuring the resolution of the conflicting interests of its citizens, can only thrive where there is free rein for the interplay of political forces. This entails competition within set norms of democratic practice. The enthronement and sustenance of democracy therefore depends on the existence of political institutions and political actors. Politics cannot be successfully practiced in an arm-chair fashion because it is a game pursued in a dynamic process in which the people as the final arbiters are watching the efforts of individual actors in their attempts to satisfy people's yearnings for progress and socio-economic development. However, it must be admitted that the practice of politics requiring the emergence of majority rule embodies a game of numbers which may be manipulated if the actors are allowed by the electorate to be fraudulent. Practical politicians know that it is almost impossible to rig an election in an atmosphere of unpopularity. Furthermore, the dynamic nature of politics demands that politicians appreciate the fact that there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies but permanent interests in the political arena. The practice of politics requires adequate knowledge, expertise, experience and other remarkably good personal attributes especially where the political stakes are high. The level of sophistication of the political environment evidenced by educational literacy, political awareness and socio-economic well being of the generality of the people is a factor which cannot be ignored by those political actors desirous of succeeding within the given environment. For a developing country like Nigeria, the factors are often compounded by several other factors which inject negative dimensions into the political scenario such as ethnicity, poverty, ignorance and "man’s inhumanity to man".

With the background of the preparations for the Nigerian elections discussed so far occasioning disputes over procedural arrangements, it was clear that the ability to compete favorably cannot be said to inhere in all the political institutions and political actors in equal measure. When eventually 30 political parties emerged, the open field became so wide that INEC had to revise some of its preparations, seek for more funds which were not originally budgeted for and even solicit for foreign assistance to cope with the technicalities of the computer-related arrangements affected by the large number of contending political institutions. As for the political parties themselves, the large number threw spanners into their arrangements. Even though almost all political parties subscribe to the adoption of a geopolitical division of the country into six zones for the purpose of rotating the choice of candidates for the country's topmost positions of President and Vice-President in a South-North pivotal cycle in order to give each party the semblance of a national party so as to garner enough votes to satisfy the prerequisite of adequate geographical spread for winning the election. Since the better established and older political parties i.e., the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), and the Alliance for Democracy (AD), were inundated with myriads of applications for virtually all elective offices, all political parties had to agree to adopt a system of sifting the wheat from the chaff and choosing a candidate who could be competitive with candidates of rival parties. The system involved primary elections which in many senses constituted mini elections before the main election. Those parties that conducted their primary elections in a transparent manner, and were able to reconcile internally conflicting interests of political aspirants, stood a better chance of success later than those parties that either avoided primaries entirely or allowed the conduct of primaries to degenerate into avenues for party disintegration through intra-party bickering, dissensions and acrimonious court cases. In this regard, the AD avoided primaries in many cases, especially gubernatorial, while the ANPP lost control of its process for primaries such that both parties damaged their future chances.

Furthermore, in the case of the ANPP, it was apparent that the process leading to the emergence of its presidential candidate, retired General Muhamadu Buhari, a contestant from the north, was in clear breach of the unwritten but generally agreed zoning arrangement. The apparent move of the horde of Igbo-speaking contestants in the party's presidential primaries designed to produce a hat-trick for a consensus Igbo candidate was frustrated by the emergence of Buhari as a contestant. His election in the primaries must have affected the overall chances of ANPP not only in Igbo-speaking areas, but generally in the south because many observers were anticipating a clash of southern-based candidates for the Presidential election. The ability of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to put its house in order both before and after its well-organized primaries at all levels, and particularly for the presidential election, seemed to have guaranteed its subsequent success, all things being equal. The death of some of the political bigwigs such as Musa Yar’Adua, M.K.O. Abiola and Bola Ige must have affected the fortunes of some of the parties and equally the course of events in Nigeria.

2003 National Assembly Elections

The first set of elections took place on Saturday, April 12th 2003, to choose 109 members of the Senate, the upper house of the National Assembly, and 360 members of the House of Representatives, the lower chamber. The results as published on the internet by INEC are shown in Table 3 and Table 5 hereunder. Table 4 and Table 6 are derivative summaries of Table 3 and Table 5 respectively.

Table 3 – Result of Senate Election

Source: http://www.inecnigeria.com/2003elections/results/senate/summary.htm

Table 5 – Result of Election to House of Representatives

Source: http://www.inecnigeria.com/2003elections/results/horeps/summary.htm

Table 4 – Summary of Senate Seat Distribution Among Parties

Table 6 – Summary of Party Distribution of House of Representatives Seats

A careful analysis of the Tables reveals a lot about the configuration of Nigerian politics and implications for the development of the democratic process in Nigeria. The senate results show that the party with the highest valid votes (PDP) scored 15,585,538 or 53.69% of total valid votes which enabled it to win 73 senate seats or 68.2% of the total seats declared. That achievement guarantees that the party has enough majority to facilitate passage of all bills as well as easy confirmation of all appointments requiring Senate approval. The analysis also shows that only 10 parties each scored over 100,000 valid votes or over 0.34% total valid votes, while the remaining 20 parties altogether scored only 235,279 valid votes or 0.01% of total valid votes. The overall result shows that total valid votes represent 47.73% of total registered voters and that if the rejected ballots were added to valid votes, a voter turnout of 49.32% would have been recorded.

The three parties (AD, ANPP and PDP) that won Senate seats scored 26,505,403 votes or 91.3% of total valid votes cast leaving the remaining 27 parties to share only 2,524,704 votes giving an average of 93,507 votes per party. If on this basis a benchmark of minimum party viability of 100,000 valid votes were to be established for the future assessment of political parties then only 10 parties can be considered as serious parties out of the motley crowd of 30 which neither geopolitics nor the human and material resources of the country could support.

In a similar analysis of the results of the elections to the House of Representatives, the picture that emerged is similar. Total valid votes represent 48.06% of total registered voters while all votes cast of 30,386,270 represent a voter turnout of nearly 50%. However an analysis of Table 6 has some interesting outcomes. Because the area and population covered by a Senate constituency is about 3 times that of a House of Representative constituency, the assessment of popularity can become location-specific. Consequently the same parties were able to make some in-roads into what appeared to be strongholds of some of the bigger parties, especially the PDP, such that while the party has 54.49% of total valid votes and 61.67% of number of seats in respect of the House of Representatives it garnered 53.69% and 68.2% respectively in the Senate elections. This observation is also buttressed by the fact that while only 9 parties scored over 100,000 votes or over 0.34% of total valid votes in respect of the House of Representatives, the remaining 21 parties scored 309,353 or 1.06% of total valid votes. However one should be conscious of the fact that the figures available on the Internet as of May 7th, 2003, being analyzed show that 14 constituencies of the House of Representatives are still outstanding but their results are not likely to affect the emerging scenarios.

The fact that 8 political parties shared the 346 seats declared for the House of Representatives has implications for the work of the House and its relationship with the executive. Since the leading party (PDP) has not been able to achieve overwhelming majority (i.e., 2/3) of the House, the cost of lobbying may increase as well as the cost of providing physical and other facilities for the legislative leaders and political caucuses in the House. On the contrary, some realignment, merger or carpet-crossing might occur to make some of the minor party representatives more relevant especially if they are considered good materials. It is also noteworthy that as a result of the elections only about 20% of existing members of the National Assembly were able to scale through; an indication that the electorate were watching and monitoring their activities.

The Gubernatoral Elections

The gubernatorial and presidential elections were held on the same day, April 19th, 2003. Although these two elections were considered the climax of the entire exercise because of the high stakes, there can be no doubt that the results of the National Assembly elections of April 12th, 2003, must have had some effect on the outcome of this one; negatively for some parties, but definitely positively for the parties with the winning streak. In a developing economy like Nigeria's, where governments still hold the commanding heights in the management of the economy and the distribution of amenities to communities and appointments to public offices, no community wants to be seen to be in opposition. The band-wagon effect of the earlier election on the second one was to be expected. The summary of the overall results of the gubernatorial elections is shown below as Table 7.

Table 7 – Summary of Results of Gubernatorial Elections

Source: Nigerian Tribune, April 23^rd, 2003.

Here again as in the Senate elections, only three parties won seats. However, if the results of the same elections in 1999 were compared with these results it will be observed that there are more losers than gainers.

Table 8 – Comparative Summary of Gubernatorial Results 1999 and 2003.

Although all the gains seem to be in favor of the PDP, it is important to examine the zonal dimension of the gains and losses in order to appreciate the various factors that influenced electoral chances from one zone to the other which the summary shown above would not highlight. It would also be necessary to examine the factors that led to upsets leading to the defeat of 10 incumbent governors out of 36. It is the astonishing nature of the gains, losses and upsets that fuelled the complaints of rigging and other electoral malpractices by the losers much of which cannot be substantiated by the facts and figures on the ground.

The Nigerian electorate has become wiser and more enlightened respecting their civic responsibilities and rights. The people have taken seriously the much publicized slogan of INEC that "your vote is your power, use it wisely". The people kept watching the activities in elective offices waiting for the day of judgment. Many of the legislators went to Abuja to feather their nests by approving huge remunerations and perquisites of office for themselves, incessantly quarrelling over contract awards, brandishing impeachment threats and engaging in unnecessary bickering with the executive instead of passing bills meant for the welfare of the people. In the executive, particularly at the state levels, many of the governors failed to perform, many were steeped in corrupt practices and most of them became so complacent, high-handed and haughty to the electorate, building empires on shifting sand. Many of the governors, especially those in the south-west zone, were basking under primordial political sentiments and manifesto clichés that are no longer tenable given the dynamics of Nigeria's socio-economic situation. They lived in the shell of their past to their peril and felt that the factor of incumbency was enough to see them through. The proliferation of political parties and intra party squabbles after party primaries affected the chances of some of the incumbent governors as in the cases of Lagos, Borno and Anambra States. Incidentally, Lagos State had the highest number of gubernatorial contestants numbering 15, followed by Borno State which fielded 10 candidates. PDP lost the gubernatorial election in Lagos State by 171,107 votes which might have been a different matter if the other three candidates of APGA, ANPP, and NCP (some formerly belonging to PDP) who jointly polled a total of 182,349 votes had not contested. In Borno State, essentially the contest was between three candidates—Kachalla (the incumbent governor), Sheriff of ANPP and Imam of PDP. The incumbent sought refuge under AD because his party (ANPP) did not field him. As a result, he lost the seat to the ANPP candidate. If the votes of Imam (341,537) had been pooled with those of Kachalla (336,165), Sheriff of ANPP who eventually won would have lost the election. The case of Anambra State is similar to that of Borno State. The incumbent governor (Mbadinuju) in desperation after failing to pass the test of his party (PDP) for re-election grabbed the AD ticket but lost heavily, coming fourth in the ranking of candidates. However, if the remaining four parties which collectively polled 442,345 had not contested it would have been a different story for the PDP candidate (Ngige) who scored 452,820 votes.

The Presidential Elections

The picture of the overall results of the presidential elections is as shown hereunder:

Table 9

Total Valid Votes: 39,480,486
Rejected Votes: 2,522,134
Valid Votes & Rejected Votes: 41,002,620
Number of Voters on Register: 60,823,022

Source: The Guardian, Wednesday, April 23, 2003.

It will be observed from Table 9 that even though there were 30 registered political parties only 20 or 2/3 of them presented candidates for the presidential elections. Because of the interplay of several factors displayed before and during the various elections and particularly in respect of the Presidential election, it is essential to examine the factors and implications of such factors. Among such factors are the following: (a) ethnicity; (b) religion; (c) profession; (d) gender; (e) incumbency; (f) complementarity of running mate; and (g) personality. Viewed on the basis of these factors, it will be observed that the ethnic profile of the Presidential candidates is as follows.

Table 10: Ethnic Profile of Presidential & Vice-Presidential Candidates

Generally speaking, the choice of a vice presidential candidate in Nigeria may affect for good or ill the chances of the presidential candidate no matter how good the latter is, as was witnessed in the case of Chief Obafemi Awolowo when, in 1979, he chose for a running mate an Igbo man, a Christian and southerner like himself, instead of a Muslim northerner. Baring exceptional popularity like that possessed by the charismatic Chief M.K.O. Abiola, of blessed memory, in the annulled 1993 presidential election, it is to be assumed that there should be ethnic, north-south and religious complementarity. Furthermore, it is generally true to say that the more the contestants from a particular ethnic group, the greater the dissipation of votes from that particular ethnic group as apparently has occurred with the Igbo speaking candidates on this occasion. In the list of 20 presidential candidates, 15 are Christians while the remaining 5 are Muslims, while only 6 of the vice presidential candidates can be described as Christians. Regarding gender, there are 3 female presidential and 3 vice presidential candidates. The professional profile shows that there were 6 former military/para-military officers, 2 lawyers, 2 Christian priests and 10 from other professions or business concerns. In the final analysis, the leading 3 of the contestants expectedly turned out to be ex-military officers.

Perhaps it would be sufficient for the purpose of further comments and analyses to concentrate on the outcome of the presidential elections as it concerns the 3 leaders of the team of 20 namely Olusegun Obasanjo, Muhammadu Buhari and Odumegwu Ojukwu, if only because they together scored 38,463,607 or 97.42% of total valid votes of 39,480,486 cast during the election. For ease of reference, Table 9 above may be summarized as below.

Table 11 – Summary of Presidential Election

The only other observation of a general nature worth making is the fact that voter turnout, that is, the ratio of total votes to the number of total registered voters is as high as 60.82% which is very impressive indeed for Nigeria.

The success of President Olusegun Obasanjo, which most Nigerians expected, did not go without hue and cry from the losers’ camp. This is to be expected in a country like Nigeria where winners are never humble and losers are always uncharitable. What is probably most unacceptable is the attempt of all the parties, including those that garnered as low as 4,000 votes from the entire Nigerian electorate, to assume the role of spokespersons for the outcry against the election result. As usual, the grounds of protests include allegations of rigging, intimidation, violence, manipulation of results etc. Buhari, who felt cheated by the results, could not carry the gubernatorial candidates of his party (ANPP) who won their elections along because it would be inconceivable to say that the results were partially rigged. The claim of Ojukwu is the most ludicrous because, in one breath, he said he won the election outright and, in another, he called for the annulment of the same election. While Ojukwu would not mind protesting to the election tribunals, Buhari on the other hand called for mass protest against the results in a manner tantamount to calling for public unrest and disturbance. Of course, no election of that magnitude anywhere in the world can be credited as a hundred percent fool proof, but the antecedents of this election including the preparedness of the political parties and the track records of the candidates as well as other factors, point to the fact that the winners deserved their success.

Ethnicity has always been a major factor in Nigerian politics. As can be gleaned from Table 10 above, the three major contenders represent Hausa / Fulani (Buhari), Igbo (Ojukwu) and Yoruba (Obasanjo). Under the tacit agreement among politicians and political parties, the Hausa / Fulani ethnic group was not expected to present a presidential candidate this time around. It appears that the emergence of Buhari represented the belated effort of the hard-liners among the Hausa / Fulani group who felt sorely bitter towards Obasanjo no thanks to their unsubstantiated charges of marginalisation of the north by his administration; charges not shared by a majority of northerners. Secondly, there is an element of religious bigotry in the attitude of Buhari towards Obasanjo. Since all eligible voters must be 18 years old and above, all of them clearly know the antecedents of these military leaders during their military appearances and civilian living. Fortunately given that all of them have written their memoirs or have had others write on their careers, most Nigerians were well placed to assess them correctly. Obasanjo definitely towers above both of them. Obasanjo is committed to the unity of the country. He led a more popular military government that eventually handed over to civilian President Shehu Shagari. He has more positive achievements to his credit.

Buhari gave himself away as a leader who cherishes the introduction of divisive issues such as ethnicity and religion in his discussion of the future of the country and his electioneering campaign. He was quoted as saying that muslims should vote for only muslims and that the islamization of Nigeria is a matter of time. It was seen from the results of the elections that in the north, his party (ANPP) is made to be seen as an Islamic party because Buhari is the party's flag bearer. Any community that is dominated by muslims voted for ANPP in the north. That is one of the reasons why PDP lost Kano's gubernatorial election. On the other hand, in many states of the south, voters saw him as a fanatical, fundamentalist Muslim who can cause disunity in Nigeria. Buhari's image with the media in Nigeria has remained very poor since his anti-press draconian decrees when he was the military Head of State in 1984, as well as his refusal to appear before the Oputa Commission set up to reconcile Nigerians to one another over breaches of human rights. His attitude to the Press was so bad that he refused to participate in any of the Presidential debates organized by the media.

As for Ojukwu, it was apparent that he came into the political turf belatedly believing he could be accepted as a consensus candidate of the Igbo to satisfy their yearning for an Igbo President this time around since the failure of Dr. Alex Ekwueme at the PDP primaries. Unfortunately, he miscalculated regarding his acceptability as a sincere Nigerian leader in light of his antecedents and pre-election utterances not to talk of the the rising profile of young Igbo elites fed up with their old brigade.

The most remarkable phenomenon of the elections which Obasanjo's opponents wanted to use to prove their charges of rigging and other electoral malpractices is the unprecedented success of the PDP in all the six states hitherto controlled by AD which saw the PDP winning the majority of seats in all the legislative houses as well as five out of six gubernatorial seats conceding only Lagos narrowly to the AD. Apart from the fact that the PDP campaigned more effectively than all the other political parties in these states, it was also aided by the lackadaisical performances of the AD governors. Moreover, the Yoruba seem to have had a rethink and made up their minds to continue to be relevant in Nigerian politics now and in the future. The Yoruba are already conscious of the fact that whether Obasanjo won or lost, the 2003 presidential election, under the generally acceptable zoning arrangement, constituted the last chance of the Yoruba to lead in the mainstream of governance in Nigeria in the foreseeable future. Consequently, they figured that it was in their best interest to vote Obasanjo for a second term since he had performed fairly creditably during his first outing and there did not seem to be other more viable alternative candidates among Yoruba contestants.

Buhari’s ANPP and Ojukwu’s APGA dwelt extensively on the electoral irregularities in the six states of the South-South zone. Their position was supported by the comments of one or two foreign observer teams. In this regard, some analysts have gone as far as to say that even if hypothetically the results of the elections in the six "disputed" states as indicated in the European Union (EU) observer mission report were to be discountenanced and deducted from the votes of the two leading contenders, Olusegun Obasanjo would still have won the elections and would still have satisfied the two constitutional requirements for proclaiming the winner of the Presidential election, namely majority vote and 25% of the votes cast in each of the states constituting two thirds of the states of the federation. This standpoint is corroborated in the table below.

Table 12 – Summary of Votes Cast in the Six Disputed States

As pointed out earlier, the factors of ethnicity and religion came into greater prominence during the presidential election. It is essential to examine how the six zones voted especially for the 3 leading contestants who, as it were, represented the three major ethnic groups and the two major faiths—Christianity and Islam. It must be appreciated that where the more important factor in consideration by the electorate is religion, the faith of the running mate is discounted while emphasis is placed on the presidential candidate himself. Except in the south-eastern zone, the claim of Ojukwu and his running mate to some reckoning can safely be ignored in this analysis.

Of the three zones in the north, Obasanjo lost the north-west zone to Buhari, the Hausa/Fulani candidate, shared the north-central states where Islam cannot claim predominance, and where the people have expressed their desire to be seen to be independent of the so-called monolithic north. On the other hand, Obasanjo clearly won all the southern states. Even when the issue of geographical spread constitutionally required is considered, it would be seen that where Obasanjo did not receive the mandatory 25% of total votes cast, the result has not been as dismal as in the case of Buhari in the places where he lost, as shown hereunder.

Table 13

Even in some states like Edo where the ANPP gubernatorial candidate made some fairly good showing, Buhari failed abysmally, confirming his unpopularity with the electorate in the south, even in Igboland whence came his running mate ( the late Chuba Okadigbo). The state where he performed best in the south is Akwa-Ibom (13.21%) which is the state of the chairman of the party (ANPP), Chief Don Etiebet. Incidentally, Obasanjo won his largest number of votes in Rivers State with 2,003,521 valid votes while he received the highest percentage of valid votes of 97.98% in Cross Rivers State. The PDP victory in this election and the other ones in the series has, for the first time, established the fact that the determination of who governs the country is the exclusive preserve of the Nigerian electorate and not the birthright of any ethnic or sectional grouping. It is also a clear confirmation of the Nigerian commitment to democratic ideals and a clear message to all anti-democratic forces in the country to steer clear of the wave of democratic change.

State Assembly Elections

As it is to be expected, the band-wagon effect of the two previous elections in the series became pronounced in the election into the 36 State Houses of Assembly held on May 3rd, 2003. The results, as posted on the Internet by INEC, are summarized in Table 14, shown hereunder;

Table 14 – Summary of Results of State Assembly Elections